The Double Bird

 

This blog has just turned into me profusely apologizing for not blogging. I’ll do it again. I am sorry. I’ve heard from several people, and frankly the comments are not appreciated. Everyone that’s 3-0 wants to immediately know where the blog is so I can prop them up. “Are you not blogging until you win a game”? My team sucks. Let me heal!

I also want to make everyone aware of the mediums of communication we’ll be using this year. I’ll post on the blog and will email and GroupMe everyone the links. You won’t see tons of GIFs and funny things in the blog this year. My apologies. It takes a tremendous amount of time to track all that stuff down and embed it. If you see someone go through a flaming table, post it in the GroupMe. Let’s make that more active. It’s much easier.

It’s been an interesting start to the NFL season. I don’t think we’ve really seen many guys have a breakout start that was unexpected. Maybe Mike Williams? Look at the leading rushers and receivers so far. Are there any names that really surprise you? Are there any teams that really surprise you? The whole preseason change I feel has really changed the dynamic. Teams aren’t taking shots on young guys like they used to. Most players I remember seeing doing well in preseason just aren’t on rosters. I’m still waiting for something unexpected to happen.

The one positive change has been the Manning Monday night broadcast. These guys are remarkably more likable when not playing football. Eli is funny. Peyton is smarter than the coaches. I want Peyton to be the next Eagles coach today. I was a bit hesitant to give it a try given the long history of hatred, but it was highly enjoyable. The Steve Levy broadcast is unwatchable. I don’t know if ESPN has released ratings on each broadcast, but it won’t be long before the Manning broadcast has far more viewers. Anyone that is still on the other broadcast… you’re missing out.

Beef of the Week: A “passing league”

You’ve heard the term. You’ve heard the commentary. The NFL is a passing league! And it is. That’s certainly true. But things have gotten out of control. I’m going to give you a simple analogy for what the problem is. It’s straightforward.

The NBA has become so much about the 3. It’s math! When you have guys that shoot 40% from 3 (1.2 expected points per shot), they’d need to shoot 60% from 2 to make it equitable. And guys don’t shoot that well. So, the 3 has become king. You must be able to shoot well from 3 in today’s game. But you don’t shoot a 3 every single trip down the floor. Why? Because if you do, you won’t shoot 40%. The defense will know what’s coming and adjust accordingly so you’re not better off. You need to mix it up so it’s effective.

That’s what has happened with football. Why would I run the ball for 4 yards when I average 7 yards per pass attempt? Teams know this. Completion percentages have gone up because teams want those 7 yards. Passer ratings have gone up because it’s a function of completion percentage (more math!). But just like the 3, you’re not going to see that level of performance if you do it every single time. Any defensive line that’s halfway decent can get some pressure rushing 4, and then it’s just a numbers game. You have 7 guys sitting back trying to cover at most 5 receivers.

I know the analytics nerds love to roast coaches that say we win when we run the ball. There’s a cause and effect there, sure. But the reality is very, very rarely do you see any team come out, throw the ball every single down in the first half, and win a game. It just doesn’t happen. Anyway, 4 paragraphs to say fuck Nick Sirianni.

 

Power Rankings

As I said about the power rankings after the first week… don’t trust them. If you draft from their list, they rank you high. If you don’t, they rank you low. The one thing they were right about was that the Pylons stink. Championship game last year. 0-3 this year. Things have not gone well.

 

14. Dueling Pylons (0-3) – Last week: 13

Will this team win a game? We may never know. The roster is seemingly OK, but the results are not. No real go-to superstar, and AJ Brown has been a bust so far. Maybe the reality of this ranking will wake the team up.

13. Tequila Party Gnomes (0-3) – Last week: 14

Down in the dumps with the Pylons. TPG had a huge week 1 in a losing effort, but the last two weeks have been rough. Bobby Trees has been disappointing while EEB does Peloton with Cooper Kupp for 30 points every week. Sad!

12. Geno 911 (2-1) – Last week: 12

I can’t believe I lost to this team. As usual, Gambino has the team that would’ve been a contender 2-3 years ago. There actually are good players on this roster and a 2-1 start is not horrible.

11. The King’s Crusaders (1-2) – Last week: 6

There’s a real possibility this team deserves to be ranked lower. CMC now hurt. Allen Robinson’s QB stinks. All he has is Dak/Cooper as a Giants fan. Can’t be enjoyable.

10. Stanky Monkeys (0-3) – Last week: 3

I don’t know what the rankings saw to put this team at 3. They’ve struggled all year. Waiting until round 45 to draft QB/TE may not have been the best approach. Needs a shot in the arm to get things going.

9. Tree Party CuttyBill$ (2-1) – Last week: 9

This team is not bad, honestly. Burrow has been OK and the rest of the roster has been scoring points. I think the arrow is pointing up here. With a 2-1 start, I would not be surprised to see this team moving up the rankings.

8. Pork Chop Express (3-0) – Last week: 4

GASP! A 3-0 team at #8? That’s correct. When you’re starting James Conner and Jaylen Waddle, this is what happens. This team also has zero depth. I’m not expecting an undefeated run much longer, but the 3 WR horses should carry you to the playoffs at least.

7. Tweeting in the Trenches (0-3) – Last week: 1

Has scored more points than 0-3 PCE. You just can’t play defense in fantasy. Tannehill at QB is holding this team back from being a serious contender, but the roster is strong. I’d expect wins soon.

6. The Old Ball Sack (2-1) – Last week: 5

Look, I get it. This is somehow currently the highest scoring team in the league. I’m not buying it. Brandin Cooks, Logan Thomas, Chase Edmonds, and Jalen Hurts throwing 50 times. I can’t see the continued success. Certainly, has done well, getting off to a hot start. But I think this is more mirage than reality.

5. Street Pigeons (3-0) – Last week: 7

Much, much better team this year. A 3-0 start is huge and now welcomes 0-3 Dueling Pylons. Can really drive a wedge between those teams. I’m a little worried with the injuries thus far. If this team stays healthy, I’m expecting it to be very competitive.

4. Coach Janky Spanky (2-1) – Last week: 2

It feels a bit weird to put a team that just set a league record with 219 points (HOLY SHIT) this low. But I’m sticking with this for now. All in on Rams/Steelers. It seems like an OK strategy. I’m still stunned at what you did to Woody. I knew you were rivals, but you ain’t have to go that hard on him.

3. Philly Peppers (2-1) – Last week: 10

WR was the biggest question mark heading into the season, and so far, Chase and Williams have answered the call. Derek Carr also has been way better than expected, and the Carr-Waller hookup is nice. Another team I question the longevity but for now, looking good.

2. Cash Me Out Wide (2-1) – Last week: 11

Maybe I’m just reeling from the beating I took. Brady has been on fire. Not getting the big contributions from the other pieces yet, but that’s alright. Just imagine if you would’ve drafted usable players instead of Rodgers and Ryan. You’d clearly be #1.

1. Team BG (2-1) – Last week: 8

So close to a 3-0 start. DeVonta Smith just couldn’t get it done Monday night. And imagine if Hollywood hadn’t dropped 3 TDs. Just needed one of them to get a victory. This team went heavy on speed WRs this year, and I think it was the right year to do that. I think this team may not fade from a hot start like every other year.

See you all in the GroupMe.

2021 Draft Officially in the Books

 

Despite challenging conditions, the 2021 EFFL Draft must be deemed a success. With EEB pulling out for the first time ever and Fusco going on the COVID-IL, things appeared in jeopardy. But the league banded together, as always, to ensure the draft was indeed a memorable one.

The day started off with drafter Ben Lobitz becoming a father of 3 and ultimately persevering to draft from an unknown location. We've had some near misses in the past, but this was the first and second draft day births. Congratulations!

The lottery unfolded at Burgerology Manhattan. Mike Y was immediately demanding sangritas with multiple shots of tequila. The server was highly confused. Mike Y was not served any tequila. Cutty and Phil went hard for espresso martinis. And before you even ask, the answer is yes. I was startled and awoken at 6:25 AM with heaving sounds coming from the bathroom. No chants of "WHY ME?" but you could hear with each heave the utter disappointment.

Dosh just beats to his own drum. He didn't order just one drink, but two. An Ommegang Witte and a Burgerology Lager. These beers would ultimately be dumped into the same glass and consumed in a mixture. In addition, his "summer fit" is apparently all he's worn this summer. Shockingly, he was in the exact same clothes and hat at the draft as his lottery image. A friendly reminder that social media will be used against you in a future lottery.

On a personal commish note, I've fully given up on the manila envelope lottery. Those things are far too unwieldy. The Amazon envelope cards for $3 worked perfectly. True to his name, Philly Peppers drew the habanero yet again. Luckily for him, we did not actually have any habaneros in person. Tatz and I found a bodega and the biggest jalapenos I've ever seen in my entire life. I joined Phil and Gambino, who was in pepper debt, with the ceremonial peppering to get things going since it was absent last year. Those things were incredibly hot. We'll be back to habs next year.

I also did not expect to be on mules, but they were delicious and going down real nice. Post-draft devolved into what you'd typically expect from this group.

Beef of the Week: John Harbaugh

Could there be anyone else? It may seem early to have beef, but it's never too early. These coaches NEVER learn. Don't play your starters in the preseason. Just don't. Has anyone in their life heard a coach during the regular season say any of the following:

• I credit our success to our guys getting more work in the preseason
• We've been poor because our players didn't play enough in the preseason

Not once have you ever heard that. And you will never hear that because it doesn't make any sense. Coaches don't even use the real playbook in the preseason. But no, you put your starters out there in a violent game where guys always get hurt. JK Dobbins had his knee destroyed for absolutely no reason. There was nothing to be gained and everything to lose by having starters play in the preseason.

I don't want to hear the 'It's a violent game! It could happen in practice in non-contact!' argument. We know this. That doesn't mean it's a smart decision to put an important player in a dangerous situation. And of course it happened again to TPG. First Andrew Luck, now Dobbins. Didn't even make it an hour after drafting Dobbins before he was done for the season. Sad!

League Notes

There are a few items I wanted to mention so everyone is aware.

First, there are 18 roster spots. I did not realize this and I cannot reduce this number. Because we drafted 16 rounds, each team currently has 2 open spots that can be filled. Yay!

The first run of waivers will process Tuesday. It is the inverse of the draft order. Remember that after a waiver claim you will go to the bottom. I look forward to Mike Y at 3:30 AM every week trying to not burn his waiver spot.

Last, I have changed the schedule. Week 1 is a "champions" week. Teams that met in the EFFL final in the past will face off. If you have not reached a final, you are automatically awarded a loss. Week 14 is also a 2nd meeting between teams. Heated rivals will face off in the final week of the regular season.

Power Rankings

For the initial power rankings, I will defer to FantasyPros rankings. These rankings don't mean anything. They have a list that people use to draft and then rank people based on the same rankings. This is a circular reference. Following the start of the season, I'll rank based on my clearly superior opinion.

14. Tequila Party Gnomes - As you'll see, you let the wrong person draft for you. Immediately losing a 3rd round pick is not good, but I think this team will be fine.

13. Dueling Pylons - Only 4 receivers on the roster and 2 are rookies. Not good. Just like TPG, the Pylons will be fine. Moves will be made.

12. Geno 911 - A familiar location for Gambino. Clearly flustered with jalapeno heat, Nick exchanged his draft list for a 2019 draft list. Then spited the Pylons, despite the generous offer to also eat a pepper, by taking Lamar Jackson. This is going to be weird.

11. Cash Me Out Wide - Classic Dosh. Taking back to back QBs at the 4/5 turn was a stroke of genius. Basically gave himself the JK Dobbins treatment. He'll be trying to hawk those QBs to the rest of the league all year.

10. Philly Peppers - 3 of the 5 worst ranked are pepper eaters. Also flustered in the first round and immediately questioned his TE/TE strategy. Waited way too long on QB and WR. I think this team could be in some trouble.

9. Tree Party CuttyBill$ - Huge fan of the new team name and the decision to wear a Tree Party jersey to the draft. Most violent team of all time. If this team can stay out of jail, it actually could be decent. But not Joe Mixon. He stinks.

8. Team BG - Reached on DeVonta Smith a bit, but overall pretty solid. Picking up Gus Edwards could be big. I could not see the death stare when Tatz stole Justin Fields, but I have to assume a hole would've been burned in him had you been in the same room.

7. Street Pigeons - I said it during the draft.. I thought you did very well. Gaskin was also probably a bit of a reach, but that's OK. Great value on the keepers as well. I don't expect this team to be in the cellar all year like in 2020.

6. The King's Crusaders - Loves the Cowboys. I didn't know this. I know exactly how this is going to go down. Woody is gonna score a ton of points and you're going to wonder how. Also did well in the late rounds. Will be a contender.

5. The Old Ball Sack - Asked how many players Fusco had kept at least 5 times. This team is solid across the board but doesn't stand out in any areas. This is a ranking I do not agree with. I think this team should be further down.

4. Pork Chop Express - Had a massive head start with keepers. Loves backup RBs. It'll be interesting to see what this team does. Incredibly unbalanced right now, but 3 stud WRs is definitely a good thing.

3. Stanky Monkeys - Also a very interesting ranking. I said during the draft I thought this was your best effort to date. Still big question marks at QB and TE. There's definitely enough ammo here to be strong.

2. Ouch! My Hamstringy! - Josh Allen in the 6th round was an absolute steal. That should never have happened. Going triple RB was a little bold. The last time we saw that was TPG in 2020 and we know how that turned out. Again, probably a bit high for me, but this team should be good.

1. Tweeting in the Trenches - Drafted from a restaurant. I feel partially responsible here because I let Ekeler slip to the 3rd. Tannehill at QB is nothing special, but the rest of the team is pretty solid. Probably among the best drafts.

With the draft in the books, we shift to the regular season. The first game is Thursday, September 9th when the Bucs play the Cowboys. Looking forward to the season and thanks again to everyone who came out. It was great to see everyone again!